DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13189
论文题名: Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: A place-based approach
作者: Schwalm D. ; Epps C.W. ; Rodhouse T.J. ; Monahan W.B. ; Castillo J.A. ; Ray C. ; Jeffress M.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 4 起始页码: 1572
结束页码: 1584
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ochotona princeps
; American pika
; Functional connectivity
; Genetic neighborhood
; National Parks
; Random Forest
; Realized niche
; Species distribution modeling
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; ecological modeling
; gene flow
; habitat availability
; lagomorph
; national park
; niche breadth
; spatial distribution
; United States
; Ochotona princeps
; Ochotonidae
; animal
; climate change
; ecosystem
; gene flow
; genetics
; lagomorph
; population dynamics
; season
; theoretical model
; United States
; weather
; Animals
; Climate Change
; Ecosystem
; Gene Flow
; Lagomorpha
; Models, Theoretical
; Population Dynamics
; Seasons
; United States
; Weather
英文摘要: Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61449
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; National Park Service, Upper Columbia Basin Network, 650 SW Columbia Street, Suite 7250OR, United States; USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, 2150 Centre Ave. Bldg. A, Suite 331, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Nevada DepartmenFt of Wildlife, 60 Youth Center Road, Elko, NV, United States; Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, US Forest Service Forest Health Protection, Fort Collins, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Schwalm D.,Epps C.W.,Rodhouse T.J.,et al. Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: A place-based approach[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(4)