DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13060
论文题名: It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling
作者: Quaas M.F. ; Reusch T.B.H. ; Schmidt J.O. ; Tahvonen O. ; Voss R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 1 起始页码: 264
结束页码: 270
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Aquaculture
; Cod
; Fish market
; Fisheries management
; Global change
; Marine biology
; Resource economics
; Tuna
Scopus关键词: fishery management
; gadoid fishery
; global change
; salmonid culture
; stock assessment
; tuna fishery
; Dicentrarchus labrax
; Gadus morhua
; Salmo salar
; Scombridae
; Serranidae
; animal
; aquaculture
; comparative study
; economic model
; economics
; environmental protection
; fish
; fishery
; population dynamics
; procedures
; Animals
; Aquaculture
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Fisheries
; Fishes
; Models, Economic
; Population Dynamics
英文摘要: Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61543
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1, Kiel, Germany; Kiel Insitute for the World Economy, Kiellinie 66, Kiel, Germany; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Evolutionary Ecology of Marine Fishes, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, Germany; Department of Forest Sciences and Department of Economics, University of Helsinki, Latokartanonkaari 7, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Quaas M.F.,Reusch T.B.H.,Schmidt J.O.,et al. It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(1)