DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13090
论文题名: Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation
作者: Prieto-Torres D.A. ; Navarro-Sigüenza A.G. ; Santiago-Alarcon D. ; Rojas-Soto O.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 1 起始页码: 364
结束页码: 379
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ecological niche modeling
; Ecosystems
; Global climate change
; MaxEnt
; Tropical dry forests
Scopus关键词: climate change
; dry forest
; ecological modeling
; ecosystem response
; forest ecosystem
; habitat conservation
; habitat loss
; maximum entropy analysis
; protected area
; Mexico [North America]
; Aves
; animal
; bird
; climate change
; ecosystem
; environmental protection
; forest
; Mexico
; plant
; procedures
; tropic climate
; Animals
; Birds
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Ecosystem
; Forests
; Mexico
; Plants
; Tropical Climate
英文摘要: Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate-change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61545
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, A.C., Laboratorio de Biogeografía, carretera antigua a Coatepec No. 351, El Haya, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico; Museo de Zoología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apartado Postal 70-399, México D.F., Mexico; Red de Biología y Conservación de Vertebrados, Instituto de Ecología, A.C., Laboratorio de Ecología de Vertebrados e Interacciones Parasitarias, carretera antigua a Coatepec No 351, El Haya, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
Recommended Citation:
Prieto-Torres D.A.,Navarro-Sigüenza A.G.,Santiago-Alarcon D.,et al. Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(1)