DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12909
论文题名: Twenty-five years of change in southern African passerine diversity: Nonclimatic factors of change
作者: Péron G. ; Altwegg R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 9 起始页码: 3347
结束页码: 3355
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biodiversity
; Bush encroachment
; Citizen science
; Climate change
; Conservation planning
; Occupancy models
; Pesticide accumulation
; South Africa
; Species richness
Scopus关键词: abundance
; climate change
; conservation planning
; passerine
; population distribution
; probability
; species richness
; Lesotho
; Swaziland
; Aves
; Passeriformes
; agriculture
; animal
; animal dispersal
; biodiversity
; biological model
; ecosystem
; environmental protection
; Lesotho
; Passeriformes
; physiology
; population dynamics
; season
; South Africa
; Swaziland
; time factor
; Agriculture
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Biodiversity
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Ecosystem
; Lesotho
; Models, Biological
; Passeriformes
; Population Dynamics
; Seasons
; South Africa
; Swaziland
; Time Factors
英文摘要: We analysed more than 25 years of change in passerine bird distribution in South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho, to show that species distributions can be influenced by processes that are at least in part independent of the local strength and direction of climate change: land use and ecological succession. We used occupancy models that separate species' detection from species' occupancy probability, fitted to citizen science data from both phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (1987-1996 and 2007-2013). Temporal trends in species' occupancy probability were interpreted in terms of local extinction/colonization, and temporal trends in detection probability were interpreted in terms of change in abundance. We found for the first time at this scale that, as predicted in the context of bush encroachment, closed-savannah specialists increased where open-savannah specialists decreased. In addition, the trend in the abundance of species a priori thought to be favoured by agricultural conversion was negatively correlated with human population density, which is in line with hypotheses explaining the decline in farmland birds in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to climate, vegetation cover and the intensity and time since agricultural conversion constitute important predictors of biodiversity changes in the region. Their inclusion will improve the reliability of predictive models of species distribution. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61605
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Cape Town, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Péron G.,Altwegg R.. Twenty-five years of change in southern African passerine diversity: Nonclimatic factors of change[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(9)