DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12823
论文题名: Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain
作者: Gillings S. ; Balmer D.E. ; Fuller R.J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 6 起始页码: 2155
结束页码: 2168
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Birds
; Climate change
; Directionality
; Precipitation
; Range dynamics
; Range margins
; Temperature
Scopus关键词: bird
; climate change
; climate effect
; community composition
; population distribution
; precipitation (climatology)
; range expansion
; temperature effect
; United Kingdom
; Aves
; rain
; animal
; animal dispersal
; bird
; climate change
; Great Britain
; physiology
; population dynamics
; season
; species difference
; temperature
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Birds
; Climate Change
; Great Britain
; Population Dynamics
; Rain
; Seasons
; Species Specificity
; Temperature
英文摘要: There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61648
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Gillings S.,Balmer D.E.,Fuller R.J.. Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(6)