DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13027
论文题名: Back to the future: Using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood
作者: Fernández M. ; Hamilton H.H. ; Kueppers L.M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 11 起始页码: 4141
结束页码: 4152
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change adaptation
; Climate change sensitivity
; Climatic analogs
; MaxEnt
; Range shifts
; Sequoia sempervirens
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; climate variation
; coniferous tree
; downscaling
; ecosystem response
; global climate
; habitat type
; historical perspective
; terrestrial ecosystem
; California
; United States
; Sequoia sempervirens
; California
; climate change
; ecosystem
; environmental protection
; physiology
; plant dispersal
; procedures
; Sequoia
; California
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Ecosystem
; Plant Dispersal
; Sequoia
英文摘要: Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine-scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind-driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs' ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high-resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine-scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under 'normal' combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020-2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high-resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near-term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse-scale GCMs. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61649
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, 5200 North Lake Road, Merced, CA, United States; Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, Leipzig, Germany; NatureServe, 4600 N. Fairfax Drive, 7th Floor, Arlington, VA, United States; Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Rd., Berkeley, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fernández M.,Hamilton H.H.,Kueppers L.M.. Back to the future: Using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(11)