DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12721
论文题名: Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change
作者: Stanton J.C. ; Shoemaker K.T. ; Pearson R.G. ; Akçakaya H.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 3 起始页码: 1066
结束页码: 1077
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; IUCN Red List
; Linked demographic-habitat models
; Probability of extinction
; Red List Categories and Criteria
; Threatened species
Scopus关键词: amphibian
; climate change
; climate effect
; conservation management
; endangered species
; endemic species
; extinction
; Red List
; reptile
; vulnerability
; United States
; Amphibia
; Reptilia
; Amphibia
; animal
; biodiversity
; climate change
; environmental protection
; physiology
; procedures
; reptile
; species extinction
; United States
; Amphibians
; Animals
; Biodiversity
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Extinction, Biological
; Reptiles
; United States
英文摘要: Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction risk under climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61692
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, Gower Street, London, United Kingdom; Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, US Geological Survey, La Crosse, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stanton J.C.,Shoemaker K.T.,Pearson R.G.,et al. Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(3)