globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12837
论文题名:
Seasonal weather patterns drive population vital rates and persistence in a stream fish
作者: Kanno Y.; Letcher B.H.; Hitt N.P.; Boughton D.A.; Wofford J.E.B.; Zipkin E.F.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期:5
起始页码: 1856
结束页码: 1870
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air temperature ; Climate change ; Count data ; N-mixture models ; Precipitation ; Salmonids ; Stage-structured populations
Scopus关键词: air temperature ; climate change ; climate effect ; climate variation ; fish ; population dynamics ; recruitment (population dynamics) ; seasonal variation ; streamwater ; Shenandoah National Park ; United States ; Virginia ; Animalia ; Salmonidae ; Salvelinus fontinalis ; rain ; animal ; biological model ; physiology ; population dynamics ; river ; salmonine ; season ; temperature ; United States ; Animals ; Models, Biological ; Population Dynamics ; Rain ; Rivers ; Seasons ; Temperature ; Trout ; Virginia
英文摘要: Climate change affects seasonal weather patterns, but little is known about the relative importance of seasonal weather patterns on animal population vital rates. Even when such information exists, data are typically only available from intensive fieldwork (e.g., mark-recapture studies) at a limited spatial extent. Here, we investigated effects of seasonal air temperature and precipitation (fall, winter, and spring) on survival and recruitment of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) at a broad spatial scale using a novel stage-structured population model. The data were a 15-year record of brook trout abundance from 72 sites distributed across a 170-km-long mountain range in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Population vital rates responded differently to weather and site-specific conditions. Specifically, young-of-year survival was most strongly affected by spring temperature, adult survival by elevation and per-capita recruitment by winter precipitation. Low fall precipitation and high winter precipitation, the latter of which is predicted to increase under climate change for the study region, had the strongest negative effects on trout populations. Simulations show that trout abundance could be greatly reduced under constant high winter precipitation, consistent with the expected effects of gravel-scouring flows on eggs and newly hatched individuals. However, high-elevation sites would be less vulnerable to local extinction because they supported higher adult survival. Furthermore, the majority of brook trout populations are projected to persist if high winter precipitation occurs only intermittently (≤3 of 5 years) due to density-dependent recruitment. Variable drivers of vital rates should be commonly found in animal populations characterized by ontogenetic changes in habitat, and such stage-structured effects may increase population persistence to changing climate by not affecting all life stages simultaneously. Yet, our results also demonstrate that weather patterns during seemingly less consequential seasons (e.g., winter precipitation) can have major impacts on animal population dynamics. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61724
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson University, 261 Lehotsky Hall, Clemson, SC, United States; Silvio O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Branch, Leetown Science Center, United States Geological Survey, One Migratory Way, Turners Falls, MA, United States; Leetown Science Center, United States Geological Survey, 11649 Leetown Road, Kearneysville, WV, United States; Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 110 Shaffer Road, Santa Cruz, CA, United States; Shenandoah National Park, 3655 Hwy 211 East, Luray, VA, United States; Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, 288 Farm Lane, East Lansing, MI, United States

Recommended Citation:
Kanno Y.,Letcher B.H.,Hitt N.P.,et al. Seasonal weather patterns drive population vital rates and persistence in a stream fish[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(5)
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