DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12860
论文题名: Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests
作者: Cavaleri M.A. ; Reed S.C. ; Smith W.K. ; Wood T.E.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 6 起始页码: 2111
结束页码: 2121
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Carbon flux
; CMIP5
; Ecosystem processes
; Global warming
; Net ecosystem production
; Temperature
; Temperature threshold
; Tipping point
; Tropics
; Warming manipulation
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; carbon dioxide
; carbon flux
; climate change
; climate modeling
; global warming
; net ecosystem production
; tropical forest
; carbon dioxide
; carbon cycle
; climate change
; forest
; research
; temperature
; theoretical model
; tropic climate
; Carbon Cycle
; Carbon Dioxide
; Climate Change
; Forests
; Models, Theoretical
; Research
; Temperature
; Tropical Climate
英文摘要: Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61771
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Dr., Houghton, MI, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, 2290 S. West Resource Blvd, Moab, UT, United States; Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, 32 Campus Dr., Missoula, MT, United States; USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, Jardín Botánico Sur, 1201 Calle Ceiba, Río Piedras, Puerto Rico; Fundación Puertorriqueña de Conservación, P.O. Box 362495, San Juan, Puerto Rico
Recommended Citation:
Cavaleri M.A.,Reed S.C.,Smith W.K.,et al. Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(6)