| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.12851
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| 论文题名: | Reef-coral refugia in a rapidly changing ocean |
| 作者: | Cacciapaglia C.; van Woesik R.
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| 刊名: | Global Change Biology
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| ISSN: | 13541013
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 21, 期:6 | | 起始页码: | 2272
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| 结束页码: | 2282
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate
; Corals
; Persistence
; Refugia
; Temperature
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| Scopus关键词: | algorithm
; coral reef
; ecological impact
; ecological modeling
; environmental change
; irradiance
; refugium
; temperature effect
; Australia
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Acropora digitifera
; Acropora hyacinthus
; Anthozoa
; Porites lobata
; adaptation
; animal
; Anthozoa
; climate change
; coral reef
; ecosystem
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; physiology
; refugium
; sunlight
; temperature
; theoretical model
; Adaptation, Physiological
; Animals
; Anthozoa
; Climate Change
; Coral Reefs
; Ecosystem
; Indian Ocean
; Models, Theoretical
; Pacific Ocean
; Refugium
; Sunlight
; Temperature
|
| 英文摘要: | This study sought to identify climate-change thermal-stress refugia for reef corals in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A species distribution modeling approach was used to identify refugia for 12 coral species that differed considerably in their local response to thermal stress. We hypothesized that the local response of coral species to thermal stress might be similarly reflected as a regional response to climate change. We assessed the contemporary geographic range of each species and determined their temperature and irradiance preferences using a k-fold algorithm to randomly select training and evaluation sites. That information was applied to downscaled outputs of global climate models to predict where each species is likely to exist by the year 2100. Our model was run with and without a 1 °C capacity to adapt to the rising ocean temperature. The results show a positive exponential relationship between the current area of habitat that coral species occupy and the predicted area of habitat that they will occupy by 2100. There was considerable decoupling between scales of response, however, and with further ocean warming some 'winners' at local scales will likely become 'losers' at regional scales. We predicted that nine of the 12 species examined will lose 24-50% of their current habitat. Most reductions are predicted to occur between the latitudes 5-15°, in both hemispheres. Yet when we modeled a 1 °C capacity to adapt, two ubiquitous species, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora digitifera, were predicted to retain much of their current habitat. By contrast, the thermally tolerant Porites lobata is expected to increase its current distribution by 14%, particularly southward along the east and west coasts of Australia. Five areas were identified as Indian Ocean refugia, and seven areas were identified as Pacific Ocean refugia for reef corals under climate change. All 12 of these reef-coral refugia deserve high-conservation status. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61816
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: | Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, 150 West University Blvd, Melbourne, FL, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Cacciapaglia C.,van Woesik R.. Reef-coral refugia in a rapidly changing ocean[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(6)
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