DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13051
论文题名: Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades
作者: Bjorkman A.D. ; Elmendorf S.C. ; Beamish A.L. ; Vellend M. ; Henry G.H.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 12 起始页码: 4651
结束页码: 4661
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic tundra
; Bayesian hierarchical modeling
; Climate change
; Flowering time
; Interval censoring
; Plant phenology
; Seed maturation
Scopus关键词: arctic environment
; Bayesian analysis
; climate change
; climate effect
; ecosystem modeling
; flowering
; maturation
; phenology
; plant
; seed
; temperature effect
; tundra
; warming
; snow
; angiosperm
; Bayes theorem
; climate change
; ecology
; growth, development and aging
; Nunavut
; procedures
; season
; temperature
; tundra
; Angiosperms
; Bayes Theorem
; Climate Change
; Ecology
; Nunavut
; Seasons
; Snow
; Temperature
; Tundra
英文摘要: Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long-term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21-year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05-0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species - especially for early-flowering species - while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later-flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species' phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61827
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research and University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany; National Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Periglacial Research Unit, Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germany; Département de biologie, Universitè de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Bjorkman A.D.,Elmendorf S.C.,Beamish A.L.,et al. Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(12)