DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12900
论文题名: Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests
作者: Moore J.R. ; Watt M.S.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 8 起始页码: 3021
结束页码: 3035
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Pinus radiata
; Cenw
; Climate change
; ForestGALES
; Mechanistic models
; Radiata pine
; Wind damage
Scopus关键词: climate change
; damage
; forest
; forestry modeling
; risk assessment
; silviculture
; wind
; New Zealand
; Pinus radiata
; Radiata
; climate change
; forest
; growth, development and aging
; New Zealand
; pine
; theoretical model
; wind
; Climate Change
; Forests
; Models, Theoretical
; New Zealand
; Pinus
; Wind
英文摘要: Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61848
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Scion, Private Bag 3020, Rotorua, New Zealand; Scion, PO Box 29237, Fendalton, Christchurch, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Moore J.R.,Watt M.S.. Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(8)