DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12879
论文题名: The cold-water climate shield: Delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century
作者: Isaak D.J. ; Young M.K. ; Nagel D.E. ; Horan D.L. ; Groce M.C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 7 起始页码: 2540
结束页码: 2553
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bull trout
; Climate change
; Cutthroat trout
; Invasive species
; Refugia
; Salmonid
; Species distribution
; Stream temperature
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; cold water
; invasive species
; refugium
; salmonid
; spatial distribution
; streamwater
; twenty first century
; Rocky Mountains
; Oncorhynchus clarkii
; Pisces
; Salmonidae
; Salvelinus confluentus
英文摘要: The distribution and future fate of ectothermic organisms in a warming world will be dictated by thermalscapes across landscapes. That is particularly true for stream fishes and cold-water species like trout, salmon, and char that are already constrained to high elevations and latitudes. The extreme climates in those environments also preclude invasions by most non-native species, so identifying especially cold habitats capable of absorbing future climate change while still supporting native populations would highlight important refugia. By coupling crowd-sourced biological datasets with high-resolution stream temperature scenarios, we delineate network refugia across >250 000 stream km in the Northern Rocky Mountains for two native salmonids-bull trout (BT) and cutthroat trout (CT). Under both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios, refugia with high probabilities of trout population occupancy (>0.9) were predicted to exist (33-68 BT refugia; 917-1425 CT refugia). Most refugia are on public lands (>90%) where few currently have protected status in National Parks or Wilderness Areas (<15%). Forecasts of refuge locations could enable protection of key watersheds and provide a foundation for climate smart planning of conservation networks. Using cold water as a 'climate shield' is generalizable to other species and geographic areas because it has a strong physiological basis, relies on nationally available geospatial data, and mines existing biological datasets. Importantly, the approach creates a framework to integrate data contributed by many individuals and resource agencies, and a process that strengthens the collaborative and social networks needed to preserve many cold-water fish populations through the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61866
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, 322 E. Front St. Suite 401, Boise, ID, United States; Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, 800 East Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, MT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Isaak D.J.,Young M.K.,Nagel D.E.,et al. The cold-water climate shield: Delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(7)