| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.12702
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| 论文题名: | Please don't misuse the museum: 'declines' may be statistical |
| 作者: | Campbell Grant E.H.
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| 刊名: | Global Change Biology
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| ISSN: | 13541013
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 21, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 1018
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| 结束页码: | 1024
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Availability
; Declines
; Detection probability
; Historic resurveys
; Museum data
; Shrinking salamanders
; Temporary emigration
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| Scopus关键词: | amphibian
; emigration
; environmental change
; museum
; population decline
; population dynamics
; population size
; spatial analysis
; statistical analysis
; Salamandroidea
; animal
; biodiversity
; environmental monitoring
; information center
; invertebrate
; physiology
; plant physiology
; population density
; vertebrate
; Animals
; Biodiversity
; Environmental Monitoring
; Invertebrates
; Museums
; Plant Physiological Phenomena
; Population Density
; Vertebrates
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| 英文摘要: | Detecting declines in populations at broad spatial scales takes enormous effort, and long-term data are often more sparse than is desired for estimating trends, identifying drivers for population changes, framing conservation decisions, or taking management actions. Museum records and historic data can be available at large scales across multiple decades, and are therefore an attractive source of information on the comparative status of populations. However, changes in populations may be real (e.g. in response to environmental covariates) or resulting from variation in our ability to observe the true population response (also possibly related to environmental covariates). This is a (statistical) nuisance in understanding the true status of a population. Evaluating statistical hypotheses alongside more interesting ecological ones is important in the appropriate use of museum data. Two statistical considerations are generally applicable to use of museum records: first without initial random sampling, comparison with contemporary results cannot provide inference to the entire range of a species, and second the availability of only some individuals in a population may respond to environmental changes. Changes in the availability of individuals may reduce the proportion of the population that is present and able to be counted on a given survey event, resulting in an apparent decline even when population size is stable. Copyright © Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61870
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: | USGS-Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, S.O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Center, 1 Migratory Way, Turners Falls, MA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Campbell Grant E.H.. Please don't misuse the museum: 'declines' may be statistical[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(3)
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