DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12845
论文题名: Resilience and tipping points of an exploited fish population over six decades
作者: Vasilakopoulos P. ; Marshall C.T.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 5 起始页码: 1834
结束页码: 1847
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Gadus morhua
; Alternate states
; Barents Sea cod
; Basins of attraction
; Fold bifurcation
; Hysteresis
; Resilience assessment
; State shift
Scopus关键词: bifurcation
; ecosystem resilience
; exploitation
; fish
; hysteresis
; population dynamics
; Arctic Ocean
; Barents Sea
; Gadus morhua
; animal
; Arctic
; Atlantic cod
; Atlantic Ocean
; biological model
; climate change
; fishery
; multivariate analysis
; physiology
; population dynamics
; statistics and numerical data
; Animals
; Arctic Regions
; Atlantic Ocean
; Climate Change
; Fisheries
; Gadus morhua
; Models, Biological
; Multivariate Analysis
; Population Dynamics
英文摘要: Complex natural systems with eroded resilience, such as populations, ecosystems and socio-ecological systems, respond to small perturbations with abrupt, discontinuous state shifts, or critical transitions. Theory of critical transitions suggests that such systems exhibit fold bifurcations featuring folded response curves, tipping points and alternate attractors. However, there is little empirical evidence of fold bifurcations occurring in actual complex natural systems impacted by multiple stressors. Moreover, resilience of complex systems to change currently lacks clear operational measures with generic application. Here, we provide empirical evidence for the occurrence of a fold bifurcation in an exploited fish population and introduce a generic measure of ecological resilience based on the observed fold bifurcation attributes. We analyse the multivariate development of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua), which is currently the world's largest cod stock, over six decades (1949-2009), and identify a population state shift in 1981. By plotting a multivariate population index against a multivariate stressor index, the shift mechanism was revealed suggesting that the observed population shift was a nonlinear response to the combined effects of overfishing and climate change. Annual resilience values were estimated based on the position of each year in relation to the fitted attractors and assumed tipping points of the fold bifurcation. By interpolating the annual resilience values, a folded stability landscape was fit, which was shaped as predicted by theory. The resilience assessment suggested that the population may be close to another tipping point. This study illustrates how a multivariate analysis, supported by theory of critical transitions and accompanied by a quantitative resilience assessment, can clarify shift mechanisms in data-rich complex natural systems. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61893
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Vasilakopoulos P.,Marshall C.T.. Resilience and tipping points of an exploited fish population over six decades[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(5)