DOI: 10.1002/grl.50465
论文题名: Revisiting the controversial issue of tropical tropospheric temperature trends
作者: Mitchell D.M. ; Thorne P.W. ; Stott P.A. ; Gray L.J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8925
EISSN: 1944-8656
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 11 起始页码: 2801
结束页码: 2806
语种: 英语
英文关键词: amplification factors
; CMIP5
; horizontal resolution
; observational uncertainty
; radiosonde
; tropical temperature trends
Scopus关键词: Amplification factors
; CMIP5
; Horizontal resolution
; observational uncertainty
; Tropical temperatures
; Amplification
; Climate models
; Ozone layer
; Radiosondes
; Surface properties
; Tropics
; Troposphere
; Uncertainty analysis
; Upper atmosphere
; Atmospheric temperature
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate modeling
; ozone
; radiosonde
; stratosphere
; surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; temporal period
; troposphere
英文摘要: Controversy remains over a discrepancy between modeled and observed tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends. This discrepancy is reassessed using simulations from the Coupled Climate Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP 5) together with radiosonde and surface observations that provide multiple realizations of possible "observed" temperatures given various methods of homogenizing the data. Over the 1979-2008 period, tropical temperature trends are not consistent with observations throughout the depth of the troposphere, and this primarily stems from a poor simulation of the surface temperature trends. This discrepancy is substantially reduced when (1) atmosphere-only simulations are examined or (2) the trends are considered as an amplification of the surface temperature trend with height. Using these approaches, it is shown that within observational uncertainty, the 5-95 percentile range of temperature trends from both coupled-ocean and atmosphere-only models are consistent with the analyzed observations at all but the upper most tropospheric level (150 hPa), and models with ultra-high horizontal resolution (≤ 0.5° × 0.5°) perform particularly well. Other than model resolution, it is hypothesized that this remaining discrepancy could be due to a poor representation of stratospheric ozone or remaining observational uncertainty. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879944497&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50465&partnerID=40&md5=018d96f45141c21372dc151205893527
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6189
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Mitchell D.M.,Thorne P.W.,Stott P.A.,et al. Revisiting the controversial issue of tropical tropospheric temperature trends[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(11).