DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13063
论文题名: Strengthened currents override the effect of warming on lobster larval dispersal and survival
作者: Cetina-Heredia P. ; Roughan M. ; van Sebille E. ; Feng M. ; Coleman M.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 12 起始页码: 4377
结束页码: 4386
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Eddy-solving ocean circulation model
; Larval dispersal
; Western boundary current
Scopus关键词: boundary current
; climate change
; eddy
; larval transport
; lobster
; natal dispersal
; oceanic circulation
; survival
; warming
; Australia
; animal
; animal dispersal
; Australia
; climate change
; growth, development and aging
; larva
; longevity
; Palinuridae
; physiology
; temperature
; theoretical model
; water flow
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Australia
; Climate Change
; Larva
; Longevity
; Models, Theoretical
; Palinuridae
; Temperature
; Water Movements
英文摘要: Human-induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has rarely been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy-resolving ocean model in south-eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross-current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south-eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270 km in the model simulation. Thus, ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to climate-induced changes of species ranges. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61926
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Regional and Coastal Oceanography Laboratory, School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Grantham Institute and Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Floreat, WA, Australia; Department of Primary Industries, NSW Fisheries and National Marine Science Centre, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Cetina-Heredia P.,Roughan M.,van Sebille E.,et al. Strengthened currents override the effect of warming on lobster larval dispersal and survival[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(12)