DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12343
论文题名: Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks
作者: Sequeira A.M.M. ; Mellin C. ; Fordham D.A. ; Meekan M.G. ; Bradshaw C.J.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 3 起始页码: 778
结束页码: 789
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Conservation
; Global ocean
; Global warming
; Remote sensing
; Rhincodon typus
; Sea surface temperature
; Species distribution models
; Tuna purse-seine fisheries
Scopus关键词: chlorophyll a
; climate change
; conservation management
; environmental disturbance
; global ocean
; global warming
; purse seining
; remote sensing
; sea surface temperature
; shark
; spatial distribution
; spatial variation
; tuna fishery
; Atlantic Ocean
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Cetacea
; Chondrichthyes
; Rhincodon typus
; Rhincodontidae
; Scombridae
; animal
; article
; Atlantic Ocean
; climate change
; conservation
; demography
; ecosystem
; forecasting
; global ocean
; greenhouse effect
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; remote sensing
; Rhincodon typus
; sea surface temperature
; shark
; species distribution models
; statistical model
; statistics
; tuna purse-seine fisheries
; climate change
; conservation
; global ocean
; global warming
; remote sensing
; Rhincodon typus
; sea surface temperature
; species distribution models
; tuna purse-seine fisheries
; Animals
; Atlantic Ocean
; Climate Change
; Demography
; Ecosystem
; Forecasting
; Indian Ocean
; Linear Models
; Pacific Ocean
; Sharks
英文摘要: The Vulnerable (IUCN) whale shark spans warm and temperate waters around the globe. However, their present-day and possible future global distribution has never been predicted. Using 30 years (1980-2010) of whale shark observations recorded by tuna purse-seiners fishing in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we applied generalized linear mixed-effects models to test the hypothesis that similar environmental covariates predict whale shark occurrence in all major ocean basins. We derived global predictors from satellite images for chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature, and bathymetric charts for depth, bottom slope and distance to shore. We randomly generated pseudo-absences within the area covered by the fisheries, and included fishing effort as an offset to account for potential sampling bias. We predicted sea surface temperatures for 2070 using an ensemble of five global circulation models under a no climate-policy reference scenario, and used these to predict changes in distribution. The full model (excluding standard deviation of sea surface temperature) had the highest relative statistical support (wAICc = 0.99) and explained ca. 60% of the deviance. Habitat suitability was mainly driven by spatial variation in bathymetry and sea surface temperature among oceans, although these effects differed slightly among oceans. Predicted changes in sea surface temperature resulted in a slight shift of suitable habitat towards the poles in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans (ca. 5°N and 3-8°S, respectively) accompanied by an overall range contraction (2.5-7.4% and 1.1-6.3%, respectively). Predicted changes in the Pacific Ocean were small. Assuming that whale shark environmental requirements and human disturbances (i.e. no stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions) remain similar, we show that warming sea surface temperatures might promote a net retreat from current aggregation areas and an overall redistribution of the species. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61978
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Environment Institute, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia; Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No. 3, Townsville MC, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia; Australian Institute of Marine Science, UWA Oceans Institute (MO96), 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia; South Australian Research and Development Institute, P.O. Box 120, Henley Beach, SA 5022, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Sequeira A.M.M.,Mellin C.,Fordham D.A.,et al. Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(3)