| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.12398
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| 论文题名: | Tipping points in tropical tree cover: Linking theory to data |
| 作者: | Van Nes E.H.; Hirota M.; Holmgren M.; Scheffer M.
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| 刊名: | Global Change Biology
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| ISSN: | 13541013
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 20, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 1016
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| 结束页码: | 1021
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Alternative stable states
; Climate vegetation feedback
; Remote sensing
; Savanna
; Simple model
; Tropical forests
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| Scopus关键词: | climate conditions
; modeling
; remote sensing
; satellite data
; satellite imagery
; savanna
; tropical forest
; vegetation cover
; vegetation dynamics
; alternative stable states
; article
; climate vegetation feedback
; ecosystem
; fire
; remote sensing
; savanna
; simple model
; theoretical model
; tree
; tropic climate
; tropical forests
; alternative stable states
; climate vegetation feedback
; remote sensing
; savanna
; simple model
; tropical forests
; Ecosystem
; Fires
; Models, Theoretical
; Remote Sensing Technology
; Trees
; Tropical Climate
|
| 英文摘要: | It has recently been found that the frequency distribution of remotely sensed tree cover in the tropics has three distinct modes, which seem to correspond to forest, savanna, and treeless states. This pattern has been suggested to imply that these states represent alternative attractors, and that the response of these systems to climate change would be characterized by critical transitions and hysteresis. Here, we show how this inference is contingent upon mechanisms at play. We present a simple dynamical model that can generate three alternative tree cover states (forest, savanna, and a treeless state), based on known mechanisms, and use this model to simulate patterns of tree cover under different scenarios. We use these synthetic data to show that the hysteresis inferred from remotely sensed tree cover patterns will be inflated by spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions. On the other hand, we show that the hysteresis inferred from satellite data may actually underestimate real hysteresis in response to climate change if there exists a positive feedback between regional tree cover and precipitation. Our results also indicate that such positive feedback between vegetation and climate should cause direct shifts between forest and a treeless state (rather than through an intermediate savanna state) to become more likely. Finally, we show how directionality of historical change in conditions may bias the observed relationship between tree cover and environmental conditions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61985
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: | Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen NL-6700 AA, Netherlands; Centre for Monitoring and Warnings of Natural Disasters, Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000, Brazil; Resource Ecology Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen NL-6700 AA, Netherlands
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Van Nes E.H.,Hirota M.,Holmgren M.,et al. Tipping points in tropical tree cover: Linking theory to data[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(3)
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