DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12366
论文题名: Threat to the point: Improving the value of comparative extinction risk analysis for conservation action
作者: Murray K.A. ; Verde Arregoitia L.D. ; Davidson A. ; Di Marco M. ; Di Fonzo M.M.I.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 2 起始页码: 483
结束页码: 494
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biodiversity
; Declines
; Extrinsic traits
; Intrinsic traits
; IUCN Red List
; Management
; Prediction
; Prioritization
; Threats
Scopus关键词: biodiversity
; conservation management
; extinction risk
; prioritization
; Red List
; risk assessment
; species conservation
; Amphibia
; animal
; article
; biodiversity
; biological model
; Declines
; endangered species
; environmental protection
; evaluation study
; extrinsic traits
; intrinsic traits
; IUCN Red List
; mammal
; management
; methodology
; prediction
; prioritization
; risk assessment
; species extinction
; threats
; Biodiversity
; declines
; extrinsic traits
; intrinsic traits
; IUCN Red List
; management
; prediction
; prioritization
; threats
; Amphibians
; Animals
; Biodiversity
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Endangered Species
; Extinction, Biological
; Mammals
; Models, Biological
; Risk Assessment
英文摘要: Comparative extinction risk analysis is a common approach for assessing the relative plight of biodiversity and making conservation recommendations. However, the usefulness of such analyses for conservation practice has been questioned. One reason for underperformance may be that threats arising from global environmental changes (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species, climate change) are often overlooked, despite being widely regarded as proximal drivers of species' endangerment. We explore this problem by (i) reviewing the use of threats in this field and (ii) quantitatively investigating the effects of threat exclusion on the interpretation and potential application of extinction risk model results. We show that threat variables are routinely (59%) identified as significant predictors of extinction risk, yet while most studies (78%) include extrinsic factors of some kind (e.g., geographic or bioclimatic information), the majority (63%) do not include threats. Despite low overall usage, studies are increasingly employing threats to explain patterns of extinction risk. However, most continue to employ methods developed for the analysis of heritable traits (e.g., body size, fecundity), which may be poorly suited to the treatment of nonheritable predictors including threats. In our global mammal and continental amphibian extinction risk case studies, omitting threats reduced model predictive performance, but more importantly (i) reduced mechanistic information relevant to management; (ii) resulted in considerable disagreement in species classifications (12% and 5% for amphibians and mammals, respectively, translating to dozens and hundreds of species); and (iii) caused even greater disagreement (20-60%) in a downstream conservation application (species ranking). We conclude that the use of threats in comparative extinction risk analysis is important and increasing but currently in the early stages of development. Priorities for future studies include improving uptake, availability, quality and quantification of threat data, and developing analytical methods that yield more robust, relevant and tangible products for conservation applications. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62009
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, NY, United States; School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia; Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; Global Mammal Assessment program, Department of Biology and Biotechnology, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale dell' Università 32, Rome, I-00185, Italy; ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, NERP Environmental Decisions Hub, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Murray K.A.,Verde Arregoitia L.D.,Davidson A.,et al. Threat to the point: Improving the value of comparative extinction risk analysis for conservation action[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(2)