DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12380
论文题名: Phenology predicts the native and invasive range limits of common ragweed
作者: Chapman D.S. ; Haynes T. ; Beal S. ; Essl F. ; Bullock J.M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 1 起始页码: 192
结束页码: 202
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Allergy
; Ambrosia artemisiifolia
; Climate change
; Invasion
; Macroecology
; Process-based model
; Range shift
Scopus关键词: allergy
; climate change
; invasive species
; macroecology
; native species
; phenology
; pollen
; Ambrosia
; Ambrosia artemisiifolia
; allergy
; Ambrosia artemisiifolia
; article
; climate change
; ecosystem
; Europe
; introduced species
; Invasion
; macroecology
; North America
; process-based model
; ragweed
; range shift
; temperature
; theoretical model
; time
; allergy
; Ambrosia artemisiifolia
; climate change
; invasion
; macroecology
; process-based model
; range shift
; Ambrosia
; Climate Change
; Ecosystem
; Europe
; Introduced Species
; Models, Theoretical
; North America
; Temperature
; Time Factors
英文摘要: Accurate models for species' distributions are needed to forecast the progress and impacts of alien invasive species and assess potential range-shifting driven by global change. Although this has traditionally been achieved through data-driven correlative modelling, robustly extrapolating these models into novel climatic conditions is challenging. Recently, a small number of process-based or mechanistic distribution models have been developed to complement the correlative approaches. However, tests of these models are lacking, and there are very few process-based models for invasive species. We develop a method for estimating the range of a globally invasive species, common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), from a temperature- and photoperiod-driven phenology model. The model predicts the region in which ragweed can reach reproductive maturity before frost kills the adult plants in autumn. This aligns well with the poleward and high-elevation range limits in its native North America and in invaded Europe, clearly showing that phenological constraints determine the cold range margins of the species. Importantly, this is a 'forward' prediction made entirely independently of the distribution data. Therefore, it allows a confident and biologically informed forecasting of further invasion and range shifting driven by climate change. For ragweed, such forecasts are extremely important as the species is a serious crop weed and its airborne pollen is a major cause of allergy and asthma in humans. Our results show that phenology can be a key determinant of species' range margins, so integrating phenology into species distribution models offers great potential for the mechanistic modelling of range dynamics. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62056
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, EH26 0QB, United Kingdom; NatureBureau Ltd, 36 Kingfisher Court, Hambridge Road, Newbury, RG14 5SJ, United Kingdom; Environment Agency Austria, Spittelauer Laende 5, Vienna, 1090, Austria; Department of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, Vienna, 1030, Austria; Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag 1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa; NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Chapman D.S.,Haynes T.,Beal S.,et al. Phenology predicts the native and invasive range limits of common ragweed[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(1)