DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12534
论文题名: A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change
作者: Harrigan R.J. ; Thomassen H.A. ; Buermann W. ; Smith T.B.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 8 起始页码: 2417
结束页码: 2425
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Disease ecology
; Ecological forecasting
; Ensemble distribution modeling
; Flavivirus
; Infectious diseases
; Maxent
; West Nile virus
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate conditions
; climate effect
; ensemble forecasting
; infectious disease
; precipitation (climatology)
; risk assessment
; virus
; North America
; Flavivirus
; West Nile virus
; animal
; Bird Diseases
; climate change
; disease carrier
; human
; mosquito
; North America
; risk assessment
; songbird
; theoretical model
; transmission
; veterinary
; virology
; West Nile fever
; West Nile flavivirus
; Animals
; Bird Diseases
; Climate Change
; Culicidae
; Humans
; Insect Vectors
; Models, Theoretical
; North America
; Passeriformes
; Risk Assessment
; West Nile Fever
; West Nile virus
英文摘要: Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003-2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naïve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector-borne disease under climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62072
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Center for Tropical Research, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, 619 Charles E. Young Drive East, Los Angeles, California, 90095, United States; Comparative Zoology, Institute of Evolution and Ecology, University of Tübingen, Auf der Morgenstelle 28, Tübingen, D-72076, Germany; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, 621 Charles E. Young Drive South, Los Angeles, California, 90095, United States
Recommended Citation:
Harrigan R.J.,Thomassen H.A.,Buermann W.,et al. A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(8)