globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12504
论文题名:
Mountain landscapes offer few opportunities for high-elevation tree species migration
作者: Bell D.M.; Bradford J.B.; Lauenroth W.K.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期:5
起始页码: 1441
结束页码: 1451
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Demography ; Dominance ; Forest inventory and analysis ; Productivity ; Suitability ; Tree species ; Upslope migration
Scopus关键词: biological production ; climate change ; coniferous forest ; demography ; dominance ; forest inventory ; habitat loss ; landscape structure ; mountain region ; population distribution ; population migration ; population modeling ; recruitment (population dynamics) ; tree ; United States ; Pinus ponderosa ; biological model ; climate ; climate change ; forest ; physiology ; Pinaceae ; plant dispersal ; species difference ; tree ; United States ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Forests ; Models, Biological ; Pinaceae ; Plant Dispersal ; Species Specificity ; Trees ; United States
英文摘要: Climate change is anticipated to alter plant species distributions. Regional context, notably the spatial complexity of climatic gradients, may influence species migration potential. While high-elevation species may benefit from steep climate gradients in mountain regions, their persistence may be threatened by limited suitable habitat as land area decreases with elevation. To untangle these apparently contradictory predictions for mountainous regions, we evaluated the climatic suitability of four coniferous forest tree species of the western United States based on species distribution modeling (SDM) and examined changes in climatically suitable areas under predicted climate change. We used forest structural information relating to tree species dominance, productivity, and demography from an extensive forest inventory system to assess the strength of inferences made with a SDM approach. We found that tree species dominance, productivity, and recruitment were highest where climatic suitability (i.e., probability of species occurrence under certain climate conditions) was high, supporting the use of predicted climatic suitability in examining species risk to climate change. By predicting changes in climatic suitability over the next century, we found that climatic suitability will likely decline, both in areas currently occupied by each tree species and in nearby unoccupied areas to which species might migrate in the future. These trends were most dramatic for high elevation species. Climatic changes predicted over the next century will dramatically reduce climatically suitable areas for high-elevation tree species while a lower elevation species, Pinus ponderosa, will be well positioned to shift upslope across the region. Reductions in suitable area for high-elevation species imply that even unlimited migration would be insufficient to offset predicted habitat loss, underscoring the vulnerability of these high-elevation species to climatic changes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62161
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Department of Botany, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Ave, Laramie, WY, 82071, United States; US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, United States

Recommended Citation:
Bell D.M.,Bradford J.B.,Lauenroth W.K.. Mountain landscapes offer few opportunities for high-elevation tree species migration[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(5)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Bell D.M.]'s Articles
[Bradford J.B.]'s Articles
[Lauenroth W.K.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Bell D.M.]'s Articles
[Bradford J.B.]'s Articles
[Lauenroth W.K.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Bell D.M.]‘s Articles
[Bradford J.B.]‘s Articles
[Lauenroth W.K.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.