DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12546
论文题名: Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: A long-term demographic study on tawny owls
作者: Millon A. ; Petty S.J. ; Little B. ; Gimenez O. ; Cornulier T. ; Lambin X.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 6 起始页码: 1770
结束页码: 1781
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Demographic rates
; Functional response
; North Atlantic oscillation
; Population viability analysis
; Prey cycle
; Stochastic population dynamics
; Trophic interactions
Scopus关键词: climate effect
; demographic trend
; global change
; life history
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; population dynamics
; population viability analysis
; predator
; raptor
; rodent
; stochasticity
; survival
; trophic interaction
; England
; Kielder Forest
; Northumberland
; United Kingdom
; Animalia
; Aves
; Microtus agrestis
; Muridae
; Strigiformes
; Strix aluco
; animal
; Arvicolinae
; biological model
; climate change
; female
; food chain
; male
; owl
; physiology
; population dynamics
; season
; United Kingdom
; Animals
; Arvicolinae
; Climate Change
; England
; Female
; Food Chain
; Male
; Models, Biological
; Population Dynamics
; Seasons
; Strigiformes
英文摘要: Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62169
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversite et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix-Marseille Université, UMR CNRS IRD Avignon Université, Technopôle Arbois-Mediterranee Bat. Villemin - BP 80, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 04, F-13545, France; School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, University of Aberdeen, Tillydrone Avenue, Zoology Building, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, United Kingdom; Centre for Human and Ecological Sciences, Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin, Midlothian, EH25 9SY, United Kingdom; Northumberland Ringing Group, 37 Stella Hall Drive, Blaydon, Tyne and Wear, NE21 4LE, United Kingdom; Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS UMR 5175, Campus CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende, Montpellier Cedex 5, 34293, France
Recommended Citation:
Millon A.,Petty S.J.,Little B.,et al. Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: A long-term demographic study on tawny owls[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(6)