DOI: 10.1002/grl.50524
论文题名: The 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath Tokyo
作者: Toda S. ; Stein R.S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8957
EISSN: 1944-8688
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 11 起始页码: 2562
结束页码: 2566
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aftershocks
; Coulomb stress
; seismicity
; Tohoku-oki earthquake
Scopus关键词: aftershocks
; Coulomb stress
; Focal mechanism
; Large earthquakes
; Postseismic creeps
; seismicity
; Tohoku earthquakes
; Tohoku-Oki earthquakes
; Probability
; Earthquakes
; aftershock
; Coulomb criterion
; focal mechanism
; postseismic process
; probability
; seismicity
; Tohoku earthquake 2011
; Honshu
; Japan
; Kanto
; Tokyo [Kanto]
英文摘要: The Kanto seismic corridor surrounding Tokyo has hosted four to five M ≥ 7 earthquakes in the past 400 years. Immediately after the Tohoku earthquake, the seismicity rate in the corridor jumped 10-fold, while the rate of normal focal mechanisms dropped in half. The seismicity rate decayed for 6-12 months, after which it steadied at three times the pre-Tohoku rate. The seismicity rate jump and decay to a new rate, as well as the focal mechanism change, can be explained by the static stress imparted by the Tohoku rupture and postseismic creep to Kanto faults. We therefore fit the seismicity observations to a rate/state Coulomb model, which we use to forecast the time-dependent probability of large earthquakes in the Kanto seismic corridor. We estimate a 17% probability of a M ≥ 7.0 shock over the 5 year prospective period 11 March 2013 to 10 March 2018, two-and-a-half times the probability had the Tohoku earthquake not struck. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879974285&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50524&partnerID=40&md5=da2a3bbb20ac3ec6fefbceb588f58412
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6221
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8578, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Toda S.,Stein R.S.. The 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath Tokyo[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(11).