DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12492
论文题名: Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production
作者: Leppi J.C. ; Rinella D.J. ; Wilson R.R. ; Loya W.M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 6 起始页码: 1808
结束页码: 1820
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Alaska
; Chuitna watershed
; Climate change
; Coho salmon
; Hydrology modeling
; Life-cycle modeling
; Oncorhynchus kisutch
; Salmon life-cycles
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; aquatic ecosystem
; climate change
; climate effect
; ecological impact
; ecosystem response
; future prospect
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological response
; life cycle analysis
; peak flow
; salmonid
; survival
; three-dimensional modeling
; watershed
; Alaska
; Chuitna River
; United States
; Oncorhynchus kisutch
; animal
; biological model
; climate change
; female
; fishery
; growth, development and aging
; male
; Oncorhynchus kisutch
; physiology
; reproduction
; river
; season
; statistics and numerical data
; temperature
; United States
; water flow
; Alaska
; Animals
; Climate Change
; Female
; Fisheries
; Male
; Models, Biological
; Oncorhynchus kisutch
; Reproduction
; Rivers
; Seasons
; Temperature
; Water Movements
英文摘要: Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three-dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20-year span at the end of the century (2080-2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg-to-fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate-change-related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat. © 2013 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62235
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: The Wilderness Society, 705 Christensen Dr., Anchorage, AK, 99501, United States; Alaska Natural Heritage Program and Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Dr., Anchorage, AK, 99508, United States; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1011 E. Tudor Rd., Anchorage, AK, MS341 Anchorage, AK 99503, United States
Recommended Citation:
Leppi J.C.,Rinella D.J.,Wilson R.R.,et al. Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(6)