globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12329
论文题名:
Backcasting the decline of a vulnerable Great Plains reproductive ecotype: Identifying threats and conservation priorities
作者: Worthington T.A.; Brewer S.K.; Grabowski T.B.; Mueller J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期:1
起始页码: 89
结束页码: 102
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Altered flow regime ; Arkansas River shiner ; Fragmentation ; Landscape change ; Notropis girardi ; Species distribution model
Scopus关键词: conservation management ; ecotype ; endangered species ; endemic species ; environmental disturbance ; environmental effect ; environmental factor ; fish ; habitat fragmentation ; landscape change ; species diversity ; Arkansas River ; Great Plains ; United States ; Notropis girardi ; altered flow regime ; animal ; Arkansas River shiner ; article ; Cypriniformes ; ecotype ; environmental protection ; fragmentation ; landscape change ; Notropis girardi ; population dynamics ; reproduction ; river ; species distribution model ; theoretical model ; United States ; altered flow regime ; Arkansas River shiner ; fragmentation ; landscape change ; Notropis girardi ; species distribution model ; Animals ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Cyprinidae ; Ecotype ; Midwestern United States ; Models, Theoretical ; Population Dynamics ; Reproduction ; Rivers ; Southwestern United States
英文摘要: Conservation efforts for threatened or endangered species are challenging because the multi-scale factors that relate to their decline or inhibit their recovery are often unknown. To further exacerbate matters, the perceptions associated with the mechanisms of species decline are often viewed myopically rather than across the entire species range. We used over 80 years of fish presence data collected from the Great Plains and associated ecoregions of the United States, to investigate the relative influence of changing environmental factors on the historic and current truncated distributions of the Arkansas River shiner Notropis girardi. Arkansas River shiner represent a threatened reproductive ecotype considered especially well adapted to the harsh environmental extremes of the Great Plains. Historic (n = 163 records) and current (n = 47 records) species distribution models were constructed using a vector-based approach in MaxEnt by splitting the available data at a time when Arkansas River shiner dramatically declined. Discharge and stream order were significant predictors in both models; however, the shape of the relationship between the predictors and species presence varied between time periods. Drift distance (river fragment length available for ichthyoplankton downstream drift before meeting a barrier) was a more important predictor in the current model and indicated river segments 375-780 km had the highest probability of species presence. Performance for the historic and current models was high (area under the curve; AUC > 0.95); however, forecasting and backcasting to alternative time periods suggested less predictive power. Our results identify fragments that could be considered refuges for endemic plains fish species and we highlight significant environmental factors (e.g., discharge) that could be manipulated to aid recovery. © 2014.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62238
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Oklahoma Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Oklahoma Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Stillwater, OK 74078, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Texas Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Lubbock, TX 79409, United States; Texas Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, United States

Recommended Citation:
Worthington T.A.,Brewer S.K.,Grabowski T.B.,et al. Backcasting the decline of a vulnerable Great Plains reproductive ecotype: Identifying threats and conservation priorities[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(1)
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