DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12577
论文题名: Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits
作者: Polce C. ; Garratt M.P. ; Termansen M. ; Ramirez-Villegas J. ; Challinor A.J. ; Lappage M.G. ; Boatman N.D. ; Crowe A. ; Endalew A.M. ; Potts S.G. ; Somerwill K.E. ; Biesmeijer J.C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 9 起始页码: 2815
结束页码: 2828
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Maxent
; Perennial fruit
; Pollination services
; Range shifts
; Species distribution models
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate conditions
; environmental conditions
; environmental factor
; fruit
; orchard
; perennial plant
; pollination
; pollinator
; United Kingdom
; animal
; animal dispersal
; bee
; biological model
; climate
; crop
; demography
; physiology
; pollination
; United Kingdom
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Bees
; Climate
; Crops, Agricultural
; Demography
; Great Britain
; Models, Biological
; Pollination
英文摘要: Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62255
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, Reading University, Reading, RG6 6AR, United Kingdom; Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, 4000, Denmark; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Cali, DC, United States; Food and Environment Research Agency, Sand Hutton, York, YO41 1LZ, United Kingdom; Naturalis Biodiversity Center, PO Box 9517, RA Leiden, 2300, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Polce C.,Garratt M.P.,Termansen M.,et al. Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(9)