DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12344
论文题名: Will climate change promote future invasions?
作者: Bellard C. ; Thuiller W. ; Leroy B. ; Genovesi P. ; Bakkenes M. ; Courchamp F.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 12 起始页码: 3740
结束页码: 3748
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Invasive species
; Land use change
; Species distribution models
Scopus关键词: amphibian
; aquatic ecosystem
; biodiversity
; biological invasion
; bird
; climate change
; climate effect
; ensemble forecasting
; geographical distribution
; global change
; land use change
; range expansion
; restoration ecology
; terrestrial ecosystem
; Europe
; North America
; Amphibia
; Aves
; Invertebrata
; animal
; animal dispersal
; article
; biodiversity
; biological model
; climate change
; environment
; environmental protection
; introduced species
; invasive species
; invertebrate
; land use change
; plant dispersal
; season
; species distribution models
; theoretical model
; vertebrate
; Climate change
; invasive species
; land use change
; species distribution models
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Biodiversity
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Environment
; Introduced Species
; Invertebrates
; Models, Biological
; Models, Theoretical
; Plant Dispersal
; Seasons
; Vertebrates
英文摘要: Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62263
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Ecologie, Systématique and Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris-Sud, Orsay Cedex, FR-91405, France; Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553 Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble 1 BP 53, Grenoble Cedex 9, FR-38041, France; URUEM 420 Biodiversité et Gestion des Territoires, Université de Rennes 1, Campus de Beaulieu, Rennes Cedex, 35042, France; Service du Patrimoine Naturel, MNHN, Paris, France; Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Rome, Italy; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Bellard C.,Thuiller W.,Leroy B.,et al. Will climate change promote future invasions?[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(12)