DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12335
论文题名: Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification
作者: Couce E. ; Ridgwell A. ; Hendy E.J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 12 起始页码: 3592
结束页码: 3606
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling
; Boosted regression trees
; Coral reef ecosystems
; Global warming
; MaxEnt
; Maximum entropy
; Ocean acidification
Scopus关键词: acidification
; bioclimatology
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; coral reef
; environmental stress
; global warming
; habitat structure
; marine ecosystem
; nature conservation
; regression analysis
; sea surface temperature
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
; Anthozoa
; carbon dioxide
; sea water
; animal
; Anthozoa
; article
; Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling
; Boosted regression trees
; chemistry
; coral reef
; coral reef ecosystems
; geography
; greenhouse effect
; Maxent
; maximum entropy
; metabolism
; ocean acidification
; pH
; physiology
; theoretical model
; Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling
; boosted regression trees
; coral reef ecosystems
; global warming
; MaxEnt
; maximum entropy
; ocean acidification
; Animals
; Anthozoa
; Carbon Dioxide
; Coral Reefs
; Geography
; Global Warming
; Hydrogen-Ion Concentration
; Models, Theoretical
; Seawater
英文摘要: Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62269
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom; School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UG, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Couce E.,Ridgwell A.,Hendy E.J.. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(12)