| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.12302
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| 论文题名: | Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields |
| 作者: | Van Wart J.; Grassini P.; Cassman K.G.
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| 刊名: | Global Change Biology
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| ISSN: | 13541013
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 19, 期:12 | | 起始页码: | 3822
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| 结束页码: | 3834
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Crop model
; Maize
; Rice
; Weather data
; Wheat
; Yield potential
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| Scopus关键词: | agricultural production
; climate change
; climate effect
; crop yield
; environmental disturbance
; environmental factor
; global change
; maize
; rice
; wheat
; yield response
; China
; Germany
; United States
; Triticum aestivum
; Zea mays
; water
; agriculture
; article
; China
; climate change
; computer simulation
; crop
; crop model
; factual database
; Germany
; growth, development and aging
; maize
; metabolism
; methodology
; rice
; United States
; weather
; weather data
; wheat
; yield potential
; crop model
; maize
; rice
; weather data
; wheat
; yield potential
; Agriculture
; China
; Climate Change
; Computer Simulation
; Crops, Agricultural
; Databases, Factual
; Germany
; Oryza sativa
; Triticum
; United States
; Water
; Weather
; Zea mays
|
| 英文摘要: | Crop simulation models can be used to estimate impact of current and future climates on crop yields and food security, but require long-term historical daily weather data to obtain robust simulations. In many regions where crops are grown, daily weather data are not available. Alternatively, gridded weather databases (GWD) with complete terrestrial coverage are available, typically derived from: (i) global circulation computer models; (ii) interpolated weather station data; or (iii) remotely sensed surface data from satellites. The present study's objective is to evaluate capacity of GWDs to simulate crop yield potential (Yp) or water-limited yield potential (Yw), which can serve as benchmarks to assess impact of climate change scenarios on crop productivity and land use change. Three GWDs (CRU, NCEP/DOE, and NASA POWER data) were evaluated for their ability to simulate Yp and Yw of rice in China, USA maize, and wheat in Germany. Simulations of Yp and Yw based on recorded daily data from well-maintained weather stations were taken as the control weather data (CWD). Agreement between simulations of Yp or Yw based on CWD and those based on GWD was poor with the latter having strong bias and large root mean square errors (RMSEs) that were 26-72% of absolute mean yield across locations and years. In contrast, simulated Yp or Yw using observed daily weather data from stations in the NOAA database combined with solar radiation from the NASA-POWER database were in much better agreement with Yp and Yw simulated with CWD (i.e. little bias and an RMSE of 12-19% of the absolute mean). We conclude that results from studies that rely on GWD to simulate agricultural productivity in current and future climates are highly uncertain. An alternative approach would impose a climate scenario on location-specific observed daily weather databases combined with an appropriate upscaling method. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62281
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: | Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583-0915, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Van Wart J.,Grassini P.,Cassman K.G.. Impact of derived global weather data on simulated crop yields[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(12)
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