globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12309
论文题名:
Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web
作者: Niiranen S.; Yletyinen J.; Tomczak M.T.; Blenckner T.; Hjerne O.; Mackenzie B.R.; Müller-Karulis B.; Neumann T.; Meier H.E.M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期:11
起始页码: 3327
结束页码: 3342
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Baltic Sea ; Climate change ; Ecopath with Ecosim ; Eutrophication ; Fishing ; Food web ; Nutrient loads
Scopus关键词: climate change ; ecosystem management ; eutrophication ; fishing community ; food web ; global climate ; marine ecosystem ; nutrient availability ; twentieth century ; Atlantic Ocean ; Baltic Sea ; Sprattus sprattus ; animal ; article ; Baltic Sea ; climate change ; copepod ; Ecopath with Ecosim ; eutrophication ; fish ; fishing ; food chain ; food web ; nutrient loads ; phytoplankton ; sea ; theoretical model ; zooplankton ; Baltic Sea ; climate change ; Ecopath with Ecosim ; eutrophication ; fishing ; food web ; nutrient loads ; Animals ; Climate Change ; Copepoda ; Fishes ; Food Chain ; Models, Theoretical ; Oceans and Seas ; Phytoplankton ; Zooplankton
英文摘要: Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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被引频次[WOS]:97   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62283
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden; Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden; Nordic Centre for Research on Marine Ecosystems, Resources under Climate Change (NorMER) CEES, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway; Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden; Section for Ocean Ecology and Climate, Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, National Institute for Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU-Aqua), Charlottenlund Castle, 10 Jægersborg Allé 1, Charlottenlund, DK-2920, Denmark; Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestraße 15, Rostock, D-18119, Germany; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping SE-60176, Sweden; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106 91, Sweden

Recommended Citation:
Niiranen S.,Yletyinen J.,Tomczak M.T.,et al. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(11)
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