DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12176
论文题名: Making predictions of mangrove deforestation: A comparison of two methods in kenya
作者: Rideout A.J.R. ; Joshi N.P. ; Viergever K.M. ; Huxham M. ; Briers R.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 11 起始页码: 3493
结束页码: 3501
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Categorical model
; Mangrove deforestation
; Prediction
; Quantitative model
; Risk factors
Scopus关键词: biogeochemical cycle
; carbon sequestration
; deforestation
; ecosystem service
; mangrove
; numerical model
; prediction
; quantitative analysis
; risk factor
; Kenya
; Rhizophoraceae
; angiosperm
; article
; Categorical model
; comparative study
; environmental protection
; Kenya
; mangrove deforestation
; prediction
; quantitative model
; risk factor
; theoretical model
; Categorical model
; mangrove deforestation
; prediction
; quantitative model
; risk factors
; Angiosperms
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Kenya
; Models, Theoretical
英文摘要: Deforestation of mangroves is of global concern given their importance for carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling and the provision of other ecosystem services, but the links between rates of loss and potential drivers or risk factors are rarely evaluated. Here, we identified key drivers of mangrove loss in Kenya and compared two different approaches to predicting risk. Risk factors tested included various possible predictors of anthropogenic deforestation, related to population, suitability for land use change and accessibility. Two approaches were taken to modelling risk; a quantitative statistical approach and a qualitative categorical ranking approach. A quantitative model linking rates of loss to risk factors was constructed based on generalized least squares regression and using mangrove loss data from 1992 to 2000. Population density, soil type and proximity to roads were the most important predictors. In order to validate this model it was used to generate a map of losses of Kenyan mangroves predicted to have occurred between 2000 and 2010. The qualitative categorical model was constructed using data from the same selection of variables, with the coincidence of different risk factors in particular mangrove areas used in an additive manner to create a relative risk index which was then mapped. Quantitative predictions of loss were significantly correlated with the actual loss of mangroves between 2000 and 2010 and the categorical risk index values were also highly correlated with the quantitative predictions. Hence, in this case the relatively simple categorical modelling approach was of similar predictive value to the more complex quantitative model of mangrove deforestation. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed, and the implications for mangroves are outlined. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62300
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Life, Sport and Social Sciences, Edinburgh Napier University, Sighthill Campus, Edinburgh, EH11 4BN, United Kingdom; Ecometrica Ltd, Top Floor, Unit 3B, Kittle Yards, Edinburgh, EH9 1PJ, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Rideout A.J.R.,Joshi N.P.,Viergever K.M.,et al. Making predictions of mangrove deforestation: A comparison of two methods in kenya[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(11)