DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12300
论文题名: Compositional shifts in costa rican forests due to climate-driven species migrations
作者: Feeley K.J. ; Hurtado J. ; Saatchi S. ; Silman M.R. ; Clark D.B.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 11 起始页码: 3472
结束页码: 3480
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Cloud forest
; Extinction
; Forest inventory plots
; Global warming
; Species migrations
; Thermal distributions
Scopus关键词: abundance
; climate change
; climate effect
; cloud forest
; extinction
; forest inventory
; geographical distribution
; global warming
; migration
; temperature effect
; tree
; Costa Rica
; article
; biodiversity
; classification
; climate change
; cloud forest
; Costa Rica
; extinction
; forest inventory plots
; greenhouse effect
; species migrations
; temperature
; thermal distributions
; tree
; tropic climate
; climate change
; cloud forest
; extinction
; forest inventory plots
; global warming
; species migrations
; thermal distributions
; Biodiversity
; Climate Change
; Costa Rica
; Temperature
; Trees
; Tropical Climate
英文摘要: Species are predicted to shift their distributions upslope or poleward in response to global warming. This prediction is supported by a growing number of studies documenting species migrations in temperate systems but remains poorly tested for tropical species, and especially for tropical plant species. We analyzed changes in tree species composition in a network of 10 annually censused 1-ha plots spanning an altitudinal gradient of 70-2800 m elevation in Costa Rica. Specifically, we combined plot data with herbarium records (accessed through GBIF) to test if the plots' community temperature scores (CTS, average thermal mean of constituent species weighted by basal area) have increased over the past decade as is predicted by climate-driven species migrations. In addition, we quantified the contributions of stem growth, recruitment, and mortality to the observed patterns. Supporting our a priori hypothesis of upward species migrations, we found that there have been consistent directional shifts in the composition of the plots, such that the relative abundance of lowland species, and hence CTS, increased in 90% of plots. The rate of the observed compositional shifts corresponds to a mean thermal migration rate (TMR) of 0.0065 °C yr-1 (95% CI = 0.0005-0.0132 °C yr-1). While the overall TMR is slower than predicted based on concurrent regional warming of 0.0167 °C yr-1, migrations were on pace with warming in 4 of the 10 plots. The observed shifts in composition were driven primarily by mortality events (i.e., the disproportionate death of highland vs. lowland species), suggesting that individuals of many tropical tree species will not be able to tolerate future warming and thus their persistence in the face of climate change will depend on successful migrations. Unfortunately, in Costa Rica and elsewhere, land area inevitably decreases at higher elevations; hence, even species that are able to migrate successfully will face heightened risks of extinction. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62301
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, United States; Fairchild Tropical Botanic Garden, Coral Gables, FL 33156, United States; La Selva Biological Station, Organization for Tropical Studies, Puerto Viejo de Sarapiquí, Costa Rica; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Los Angeles, CA 91011, United States; Institute of the Environment, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States; Department of Biology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC 27109, United States; Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Group, Center for Energy, Environment, and sustainability, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC 27109, United States; Department of Biology, University of Missouri - St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63121, United States
Recommended Citation:
Feeley K.J.,Hurtado J.,Saatchi S.,et al. Compositional shifts in costa rican forests due to climate-driven species migrations[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(11)