DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12231
论文题名: Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: Accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model
作者: Fernandes J.A. ; Cheung W.W.L. ; Jennings S. ; Butenschön M. ; De Mora L. ; Frölicher T.L. ; Barange M. ; Grant A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 8 起始页码: 2596
结束页码: 2607
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biological feedback
; Climate change
; Competition
; Ecosystem approach
; Fisheries management
; Model validation
; Modelling
; Size spectrum
; Species interactions
Scopus关键词: abundance
; biomass
; catch composition
; climate change
; climate effect
; competition (ecology)
; ecosystem approach
; fishery management
; fishery production
; interspecific interaction
; model validation
; pelagic fish
; size distribution
; spatial distribution
; stock assessment
; trophic interaction
; animal
; animal dispersal
; article
; Atlantic Ocean
; biological feedback
; biological model
; biomass
; climate change
; competition
; ecosystem
; ecosystem approach
; fish
; fishery
; fishery management
; growth, development and aging
; model
; model validation
; physiology
; population dynamics
; size spectrum
; species difference
; species interactions
; temperature
; biological feedback
; climate change
; competition
; ecosystem approach
; fisheries management
; model validation
; modelling
; size spectrum
; species interactions
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Atlantic Ocean
; Biomass
; Climate Change
; Ecosystem
; Fisheries
; Fishes
; Models, Biological
; Population Dynamics
; Species Specificity
; Temperature
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pisces
英文摘要: Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62367
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom; Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL13 DH, United Kingdom; Changing Ocean Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada; Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, United Kingdom; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fernandes J.A.,Cheung W.W.L.,Jennings S.,et al. Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: Accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(8)