DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12168
论文题名: Can the past predict the future? Experimental tests of historically based population models
作者: Adler P.B. ; Byrne K.M. ; Leiker J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 6 起始页码: 1793
结束页码: 1803
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Competition
; Demography
; Ecological forecasting
; Mixed-grass prairie
; Plant ecology
Scopus关键词: rain
; climate change
; climate effect
; competition (ecology)
; demography
; experimental study
; forecasting method
; grass
; observational method
; population growth
; population modeling
; prairie
; sensitivity analysis
; article
; climate change
; ecology
; Poaceae
; theoretical model
; Climate Change
; Ecology
; Models, Theoretical
; Poaceae
; Rain
英文摘要: A frequently advocated approach for forecasting the population-level impacts of climate change is to project models based on historical, observational relationships between climate and demographic rates. Despite the potential pitfalls of this approach, few historically based population models have been experimentally validated. We conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment to test population models fit to observational data collected from the 1930s to the 1970s for six prairie forb species. We used the historical population models to predict experimental responses to the precipitation manipulations, and compared these predictions to ones generated by a statistical model fit directly to the experimental data. For three species, a sensitivity analysis of the effects of precipitation and grass cover on forb population growth showed consistent results for the historical population models and the contemporary statistical models. Furthermore, the historical population models predicted population growth rates in the experimental plots as well or better than the statistical models, ignoring variation explained by spatial random effects and local density-dependence. However, for the remaining three species, the sensitivity analyses showed that the historical and statistical models predicted opposite effects of precipitation on population growth, and the historical models were very poor predictors of experimental responses. For these species, historical observations were not well replicated in space, and for two of them the historical precipitation-demography correlations were weak. Our results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of observational and experimental approaches, and increase our confidence in extrapolating historical relationships to predict population responses to climate change, at least when the historical correlations are strong and based on well-replicated observations. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62423
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 84322, United States; Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, United States; Sternberg Museum of Natural History, Fort Hays State University, Hays, KS, 67601, United States; Department of Plant Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, 95616, United States
Recommended Citation:
Adler P.B.,Byrne K.M.,Leiker J.. Can the past predict the future? Experimental tests of historically based population models[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(6)