globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12157
论文题名:
Losing ground: Past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate
作者: Prost S.; Guralnick R.P.; Waltari E.; Fedorov V.B.; Kuzmina E.; Smirnov N.; van Kolfschoten T.; Hofreiter M.; Vrieling K.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期:6
起始页码: 1854
结束页码: 1864
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ancient DNA ; Collared lemming ; Dicrostonyx torquatus ; Ecological niche modeling ; Late quaternary climate change ; Microtus gregalis ; Narrow-skulled vole
Scopus关键词: arctic environment ; climate change ; community dynamics ; demography ; DNA ; ecological modeling ; ecosystem response ; environmental change ; future prospect ; glacial-interglacial cycle ; Last Glacial Maximum ; niche ; population distribution ; small mammal ; warming ; animal ; Arctic ; article ; climate change ; mammal ; physiology ; theoretical model ; Animals ; Arctic Regions ; Climate Change ; Mammals ; Models, Theoretical ; Dicrostonyx ; Dicrostonyx torquatus ; Mammalia ; Microtus gregalis ; Muridae
英文摘要: According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial-interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow-skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model-testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow-skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62436
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: AllanWilson Centre for Molecular Ecology and Evolution, Department for Anatomy, University of Otago, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand; Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3140, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Museum, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0334, United States; Department of Biology, City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, United States; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7000, United States; Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg 620219, Russian Federation; Faculty of Archaeology, Leiden University, Leiden, 2311 BE, Netherlands; Research Group Molecular Ecology, Max-Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Leipzig 04103, Germany; Department of Biology, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom; Section Plant Ecology, Institute of Biology, Leiden University, PO Box 9505, Leiden 2300 RA, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Prost S.,Guralnick R.P.,Waltari E.,et al. Losing ground: Past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(6)
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