DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12130
论文题名: Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis
作者: Pope K.S. ; Dose V. ; Da Silva D. ; Brown P.H. ; Leslie C.A. ; Dejong T.M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 5 起始页码: 1518
结束页码: 1525
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian
; Change point
; Chilling
; Climate change
; Juglans regia
; Phenology
; Temperature
; Walnut
Scopus关键词: Bayesian analysis
; behavioral response
; climate change
; climate effect
; cultivar
; flowering
; hypothesis testing
; phenology
; plant
; temperature effect
; warming
; article
; Bayes theorem
; biological model
; climate change
; growth, development and aging
; nonlinear system
; physiology
; plant leaf
; reproduction
; season
; temperature
; time
; United States
; walnut
; Bayes Theorem
; California
; Climate Change
; Juglans
; Models, Biological
; Nonlinear Dynamics
; Plant Leaves
; Reproduction
; Seasons
; Temperature
; Time Factors
; Juglans
; Juglans regia
英文摘要: The impact of climate change on the advancement of plant phenological events has been heavily studied in the last decade. Although the majority of spring plant phenological events have been trending earlier, this is not universally true. Recent work has suggested that species that are not advancing in their spring phenological behavior are responding more to lack of winter chill than increased spring heat. One way to test this hypothesis is by evaluating the behavior of a species known to have a moderate to high chilling requirement and examining how it is responding to increased warming. This study used a 60-year data set for timing of leaf-out and male flowering of walnut (Juglans regia) cultivar 'Payne' to examine this issue. The spring phenological behavior of 'Payne' walnut differed depending on bud type. The vegetative buds, which have a higher chilling requirement, trended toward earlier leaf-out until about 1994, when they shifted to later leaf-out. The date of male bud pollen shedding advanced over the course of the whole record. Our findings suggest that many species which have exhibited earlier bud break are responding to warmer spring temperatures, but may shift into responding more to winter temperatures (lack of adequate chilling) as warming continues. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62442
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, United States; Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, EURATOM Association, Boltzmannstrasse 2, Garching bei München, D-85748, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Pope K.S.,Dose V.,Da Silva D.,et al. Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(5)