globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12129
论文题名:
Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe
作者: Lenoir J.; Graae B.J.; Aarrestad P.A.; Alsos I.G.; Armbruster W.S.; Austrheim G.; Bergendorff C.; Birks H.J.B.; Bråthen K.A.; Brunet J.; Bruun H.H.; Dahlberg C.J.; Decocq G.; Diekmann M.; Dynesius M.; Ejrnæs R.; Grytnes J..-A.; Hylander K.; Klanderud K.; Luoto M.; Milbau A.; Moora M.; Nygaard B.; Odland A.; Ravolainen V.T.; Reinhardt S.; Sandvik S.M.; Schei F.H.; Speed J.D.M.; Tveraabak L.U.; Vandvik V.; Velle L.G.; Virtanen R.; Zobel M.; Svenning J..-C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期:5
起始页码: 1470
结束页码: 1481
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Climatic heterogeneity ; Community-inferred temperature ; Ellenberg indicator value ; Plant community ; Spatial heterogeneity ; Spatial scale ; Temperature ; Topoclimate ; Topography
Scopus关键词: bioindicator ; climate change ; climate effect ; global warming ; growth ; latitudinal gradient ; plant community ; temperature effect ; topographic effect ; article ; biota ; climate change ; Europe ; geography ; plant physiology ; temperature ; theoretical model ; Biota ; Climate Change ; Europe ; Geography ; Models, Theoretical ; Plant Physiological Phenomena ; Temperature ; Northern Europe
英文摘要: Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km2) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km2 units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km-1) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km-1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62446
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, Aarhus C, DK-8000, Denmark; Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EA 4698), Plant Biodiversity Lab, Jules Verne University of Picardie, 1 rue des Louvels, Amiens, Cedex 1, FR-80037, France; Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology NTNU, Trondheim, NO-7491, Norway; Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, PO Box 5685 Sluppen, Trondheim, NO-7485, Norway; Tromsø University Museum, Tromsø, NO-9037, Norway; School of Biological Sciences, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, PO1 2DY, United Kingdom; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Museum of Natural History and Archaeology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, NO-7491, Norway; Malmö Museer, Box 406, Malmö, SE-201 24, Sweden; Ecological and Environmental Change Research Group, Department of Biology, University of Bergen, PO Box 7803, Bergen, NO-5020, Norway; Environmental Change Research Centre, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, NO-9037, Norway; Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 49, Alnarp, SE-23053, Sweden; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, Copenhagen, Ø DK-2100, Denmark; Department of Botany, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden; Institute of Ecology FB 2, University of Bremen, Leobener Str., Bremen, DE-28359, Germany; Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, SE-901 87, Sweden; Biodiversity and Conservation, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Grenåvej 14, Rønde, DK-8410, Denmark; Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, PO Box 5003, Ås, NO-1432, Norway; Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FI-00014, Finland; Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Abisko, SE-98107, Sweden; Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Tartu, EE-51005, Estonia; Telemark University College, Bø, NO-3800, Norway; Faculty of Engineering and Science, University of Agder, Service Box 422, Kristiansand, NO-4604, Norway; Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute, Fanaflaten 4, Fana, NO-5244, Norway; Department of Education, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, NO-9037, Norway; Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research, Fureneset, Hellevik, NO-6967, Norway; Department of Biology, University of Oulu, Oulu, FI-90014, Finland

Recommended Citation:
Lenoir J.,Graae B.J.,Aarrestad P.A.,et al. Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(5)
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