globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50554
论文题名:
Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data
作者: Wang T.; Zhuang J.; Kato T.; Bebbington M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8980
EISSN: 1944-8711
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期:11
起始页码: 2631
结束页码: 2635
语种: 英语
英文关键词: earthquake forecast ; earthquake precursor ; GPS ; Molchan error diagram ; probability gain
Scopus关键词: Earthquake forecast ; Earthquake forecasting ; Earthquake precursors ; Error diagrams ; Ground deformations ; Large earthquakes ; Precursory information ; Probabilistic models ; Earthquakes ; Global positioning system ; Forecasting ; aftershock ; deformation mechanism ; earthquake prediction ; GPS ; Poisson ratio ; satellite data ; seismic data ; time series ; California ; Japan ; New Zealand ; United States
英文摘要: We validate that changes of ground deformation recorded by GPS contain useful information for earthquake forecasting. A moving rate of variation filter is used to extract short-term signals from GPS time series in New Zealand, California, and Japan. The precursory information of these signals for large earthquakes is evaluated using Molchan's error diagram. The results suggest that the GPS signals provide a probability gain of 2-4 for forecasting large earthquakes against a Poisson model. Further tests show that the GPS signals are not triggered by large earthquakes, and that the probability gain is not derived from forecasting aftershocks. This demonstrates that noncatalog information, such as GPS data, can be used to augment probabilistic models based on seismic catalog data to improve forecasting of large earthquakes. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879948639&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50554&partnerID=40&md5=609e650d53242b00ae5b031023f1afab
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6244
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand

Recommended Citation:
Wang T.,Zhuang J.,Kato T.,et al. Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(11).
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