DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12095
论文题名: Regional unified model-based leaf unfolding prediction from 1960 to 2009 across northern China
作者: Xu L. ; Chen X.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 4 起始页码: 1275
结束页码: 1284
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bottom-up approach
; Climate change
; Forcing and chilling requirements
; Leaf unfolding
; Regional unified model
; Spatiotemporal prediction
; Tree phenology
Scopus关键词: bottom-up approach
; climate change
; climate effect
; deciduous tree
; ecological approach
; efficiency measurement
; phenology
; reconstruction
; reliability analysis
; spatial variation
; temperature effect
; temporal variation
; article
; China
; climate change
; plant leaf
; theoretical model
; validation study
; China
; Climate Change
; Models, Theoretical
; Plant Leaves
; China
; Populus
; Populus simonii
; Prunus armeniaca
; Salix
; Salix matsudana
; Ulmus
; Ulmus pumila
英文摘要: Using first leaf unfolding data of Salix matsudana, Populus simonii, Ulmus pumila, and Prunus armeniaca, and daily mean temperature data during the 1981-2005 period at 136 stations in northern China, we fitted unified forcing and chilling phenology models and selected optimum models for each species at each station. Then, we examined performances of each optimum local species-specific model in predicting leaf unfolding dates at all external stations within the corresponding climate region and selected 16 local species-specific models with maximum effective predictions as the regional unified models in different climate regions. Furthermore, we validated the regional unified models using leaf unfolding and daily mean temperature data beyond the time period of model fitting. Finally, we substituted gridded daily mean temperature data into the regional unified models, and reconstructed spatial patterns of leaf unfolding dates of the four tree species across northern China during 1960-2009. At local scales, the unified forcing model shows higher simulation efficiency at 83% of data sets, whereas the unified chilling model indicates higher simulation efficiency at 17% of data sets. Thus, winter temperature increase so far has not yet significantly influenced dormancy and consequent leaf development of deciduous trees in most parts of northern China. Spatial and temporal validation confirmed capability and reliability of regional unified species-specific models in predicting leaf unfolding dates in northern China. Reconstructed leaf unfolding dates of the four tree species show significant advancements by 1.4-1.6 days per decade during 1960-2009 across northern China, which are stronger for the earlier than the later leaf unfolding species. Our findings suggest that the principal characteristics of plant phenology and phenological responses to climate change at regional scales can be captured by phenological and climatic data sets at a few representative locations. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62498
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Recommended Citation:
Xu L.,Chen X.. Regional unified model-based leaf unfolding prediction from 1960 to 2009 across northern China[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(4)