DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12076
论文题名: Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: Large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current
作者: Woodworth-Jefcoats P.A. ; Polovina J.J. ; Dunne J.P. ; Blanchard J.L.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 3 起始页码: 724
结束页码: 733
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biomes
; Catch
; Climate change
; Ecosystem model
; North Pacific
; Size structure
Scopus关键词: abundance
; biogeochemical cycle
; biome
; catch composition
; climate change
; climate forcing
; ecosystem response
; ecosystem structure
; fish
; fishing
; food web
; nutrient cycling
; phytoplankton
; primary production
; twenty first century
; zooplankton
; animal
; article
; climate change
; ecosystem
; fish
; Pacific Ocean
; population dynamics
; United States
; Animals
; California
; Climate Change
; Ecosystem
; Fishes
; Pacific Ocean
; Population Dynamics
; California Current
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62501
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, 2570 Dole Street, Honolulu HI 96822, United States; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Alfred Denny Building, Sheffield, S10 2TN, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Woodworth-Jefcoats P.A.,Polovina J.J.,Dunne J.P.,et al. Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: Large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(3)