DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12069
论文题名: Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s
作者: Hawkins E. ; Fricker T.E. ; Challinor A.J. ; Ferro C.A.T. ; Ho C.K. ; Osborne T.M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2013
卷: 19, 期: 3 起始页码: 937
结束页码: 947
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Calibration
; Climate
; France
; Maize
; Projections
; Yield
Scopus关键词: adaptive management
; calibration
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; crop yield
; environmental stress
; heat flux
; maize
; precipitation (climatology)
; yield response
; article
; climate change
; crop
; empirical research
; France
; heat
; maize
; Climate Change
; Crops, Agricultural
; Empirical Research
; France
; Hot Temperature
; Zea mays
; France
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016-2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62512
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; NCAS-Climate, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Hawkins E.,Fricker T.E.,Challinor A.J.,et al. Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s[J]. Global Change Biology,2013-01-01,19(3)