DOI: 10.1002/2016JD026312
论文题名: Variability, trends, and drivers of regional fluctuations in Australian fire activity
作者: Earl N. ; Simmonds I.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2017
卷: 122, 期: 14 起始页码: 7445
结束页码: 7460
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate driver indices
; fire activity
; satellite data
; trends
英文摘要: Throughout the world fire regimes are determined by climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, and they have great spatial and temporal variability. The availability of high-quality satellite data has revolutionized fire monitoring, allowing for a more consistent and comprehensive evaluation of temporal and spatial patterns. Here we utilize a satellite based “active fire” (AF) product to statistically analyze 2001–2015 variability and trends in Australian fire activity and link this to precipitation and large-scale atmospheric structures (namely, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) known to have potential for predicting fire activity in different regions. It is found that Australian fire activity is decreasing (during summer (December–February)) or stable, with high temporal and spatial variability. Eastern New South Wales (NSW) has the strongest decreasing trend (to the 1% confidence level), especially during the winter (JJA) season. Other significantly decreasing areas are Victoria/NSW, Tasmania, and South-east Queensland. These decreasing fire regions are relatively highly populated, so we suggest that the declining trends are due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires. Almost half of all Australian AFs occur during spring (September–November). We show that there is considerable potential throughout Australia for a skillful forecast for future season fire activity based on current and previous precipitation activity, ENSO phase, and to a lesser degree, the IOD phase. This is highly variable, depending on location, e.g., the IOD phase is for more indicative of fire activity in southwest Western Australia than for Queensland. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: DP140102855
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62622
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Earl N.,Simmonds I.. Variability, trends, and drivers of regional fluctuations in Australian fire activity[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2017-01-01,122(14)