DOI: 10.1002/2017JD026487
论文题名: The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing dynamical and chemical influences on ozone concentrations in the UTLS
作者: Bergman J.W. ; Pfister L. ; Kinnison D.E. ; Hintsa E.J. ; Thornberry T.D.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2017
卷: 122, 期: 11 起始页码: 6025
结束页码: 6042
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aircraft observations
; chemistry and dynamics
; Lagrangian model
; ozone
; upper troposphere/lower stratosphere
英文摘要: To evaluate the utility of trajectory analysis in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, Lagrangian predictions of ozone mixing ratio are compared to observations from the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment. Model predictions are based on backward trajectories that are initiated along flight tracks. Ozone mixing ratios from analysis data interpolated onto “source locations” (at trajectory termini) provide initial conditions for chemical production models that are integrated forward in time along parcel trajectories. Model sensitivities are derived from ensembles of predictions using two sets of dynamical forcing fields, four sets of source ozone mixing ratios, three trajectory formulations (adiabatic, diabatic, and kinematic), and two chemical production models. Direct comparisons of analysis ozone mixing ratios to observations have large random errors that are reduced by averaging over 75 min (~800 km) long flight tracks. These averaged values have systematic errors that motivate a similarly systematic adjustment to source ozone mixing ratios. Sensitivity experiments reveal a prediction error minimum in parameter space and, thus, a consistent diagnostic picture: The best predictions utilize the source ozone adjustment and a chemical production model derived from Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (a chemistry-climate model) chemistry. There seems to be slight advantages to using ERA-Interim winds compared to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications and to using kinematic trajectories compared to diabatic; however, both diabatic and kinematic formulations are clearly preferable to adiabatic trajectories. For these predictions, correlations with observations typically decrease as model error is reduced and, thus, fail as a model comparison metric. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: NNX10AO81A
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62647
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Petaluma, CA, United States; Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Earth Science Division, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States; Global Monitoring Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bergman J.W.,Pfister L.,Kinnison D.E.,et al. The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing dynamical and chemical influences on ozone concentrations in the UTLS[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2017-01-01,122(11)