DOI: 10.1002/grl.50395
论文题名: On the impact angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey landfall
作者: Hall T.M. ; Sobel A.H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9000
EISSN: 1944-8731
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 10 起始页码: 2312
结束页码: 2315
语种: 英语
英文关键词: hurricanes
; landfall risk
Scopus关键词: Annual rates
; Climate condition
; Impact angles
; New Jersey
; New York
; North Atlantic
; Return periods
; Water levels
; Hurricanes
; climate conditions
; coast
; data set
; hurricane
; New Jersey
; New York [United States]
; United States
英文摘要: Hurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to record-setting peak-water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy-like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429). © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84879941096&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50395&partnerID=40&md5=803e3645bba56bae797dee2e204c2ac8
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6264
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hall T.M.,Sobel A.H.. On the impact angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey landfall[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(10).