DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024593
论文题名: On the links between meteorological variables, aerosols, and tropical cyclone frequency in individual ocean basins
作者: Chiacchio M. ; Pausata F.S.R. ; Messori G. ; Hannachi A. ; Chin M. ; Önskog T. ; Ekman A.M.L. ; Barrie L.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2017
卷: 122, 期: 2 起始页码: 802
结束页码: 822
语种: 英语
英文关键词: aerosols
; tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: aerosol
; black carbon
; CMIP
; dust
; optical depth
; relative humidity
; sea surface temperature
; stratosphere
; tropical cyclone
; volcanic eruption
; wind shear
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (North)
; Indian Ocean (South)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (East)
; Pacific Ocean (South)
; Pacific Ocean (West)
英文摘要: A generalized linear model based on Poisson regression has been used to assess the impact of environmental variables modulating tropical cyclone frequency in six main cyclone development areas: the East Pacific, West Pacific, North Atlantic, North Indian, South Indian, and South Pacific. The analysis covers the period 1980–2009 and focuses on widely used meteorological parameters including wind shear, sea surface temperature, and relative humidity from different reanalyses as well as aerosol optical depth for different compounds simulated by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model. Circulation indices are also included. Cyclone frequency is obtained from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. A strong link is found between cyclone frequency and the relative sea surface temperature, Atlantic Meridional Mode, and wind shear with significant explained log likelihoods in the North Atlantic of 37%, 27%, and 28%, respectively. A significant impact of black carbon and organic aerosols on cyclone frequency is found over the North Indian Ocean, with explained log likelihoods of 27%. A weaker but still significant impact is found for observed dust aerosols in the North Atlantic with an explained log likelihood of 11%. Changes in lower stratospheric temperatures explain 28% of the log likelihood in the North Atlantic. Lower stratospheric temperatures from a subset of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models properly simulate the warming and subsequent cooling of the lower stratosphere that follows a volcanic eruption but underestimates the cooling by about 0.5°C. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62738
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Department of Mathematics, KTH, Stockholm, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Chiacchio M.,Pausata F.S.R.,Messori G.,et al. On the links between meteorological variables, aerosols, and tropical cyclone frequency in individual ocean basins[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2017-01-01,122(2)