DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025596
论文题名: Using qflux to constrain modeled Congo Basin rainfall in the CMIP5 ensemble
作者: Creese A. ; Washington R.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2016
卷: 121, 期: 22 起始页码: 415
结束页码: 442
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; Congo Basin rainfall
; moisture flux
; process-based evaluation
; tropical circulation
Scopus关键词: atmospheric transport
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; convergence
; flux measurement
; magnitude
; moisture flux
; precipitation assessment
; precipitation intensity
; rainfall
; Congo Basin
英文摘要: Coupled models are the tools by which we diagnose and project future climate, yet in certain regions they are critically underevaluated. The Congo Basin is one such region which has received limited scientific attention, due to the severe scarcity of observational data. There is a large difference in the climatology of rainfall in global coupled climate models over the basin. This study attempts to address this research gap by evaluating modeled rainfall magnitude and distribution amongst global coupled models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Mean monthly rainfall between models varies by up to a factor of 5 in some months, and models disagree on the location of maximum rainfall. The ensemble mean, which is usually considered a “best estimate” of coupled model output, does not agree with any single model, and as such is unlikely to present a possible rainfall state. Moisture flux (qflux) convergence (which is assumed to be better constrained than parameterized rainfall) is found to have a strong relationship with rainfall; strongest correlations occur at 700 hPa in March–May (r = 0.70) and 850 hPa in June–August, September–November, and December–February (r = 0.66, r = 0.71, and r = 0.81). In the absence of observations, this relationship could be used to constrain the wide spectrum of modeled rainfall and give a better understanding of Congo rainfall climatology. Analysis of moisture transport pathways indicates that modeled rainfall is sensitive to the amount of moisture entering the basin. A targeted observation campaign at key Congo Basin boundaries could therefore help to constrain model rainfall. ©2016. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62779
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Creese A.,Washington R.. Using qflux to constrain modeled Congo Basin rainfall in the CMIP5 ensemble[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2016-01-01,121(22)