DOI: 10.1002/2016JD024939
论文题名: Which weather systems are projected to cause future changes in mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 simulations?
作者: Utsumi N. ; Kim H. ; Kanae S. ; Oki T.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2016
卷: 121, 期: 18 起始页码: 10522
结束页码: 10537
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; precipitation
; weather system
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; precipitation (climatology)
; Southern Hemisphere
; storm track
; tropical cyclone
; twenty first century
; weather modification
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Future changes in precipitation due to climate change are of great concern to society. However, questions such as “Which weather systems will cause which changes?” and “Is the relative importance of these weather systems likely to change in the future?” have not been addressed fully yet. Here we present the first global estimates of the relative contributions of different weather systems (i.e., tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones including fronts, and others) to changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in the late 21st century using multimodel projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Although the models present biases in tropical cyclones over southern hemisphere, in particular, the representations of global weather system patterns are comparable to the reanalysis data. Total precipitation from tropical cyclones decreases (increases) in the tropics (subtropics) and that from extratropical cyclones including fronts decreases (increases) on the equatorial (poleward) side of the storm tracks. In addition, the mean intensity and frequency of system-wise precipitation can change significantly even without considerable changes in annual amounts. We found that the subtropics, particularly in the Pacific and North Atlantic, are the regions where the proportions of precipitation by weather systems in annual mean and extreme precipitation display notable changes, suggesting distinct shifts in climate regimes. These regions have a common feature: they undergo the influence of several distinct weather systems in the present climate. In regions where climate regime shifts are projected, even the weather systems that have a minor contribution to precipitation in the present climate may cause considerable changes in annual and extreme precipitation. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62841
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Civil Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Utsumi N.,Kim H.,Kanae S.,et al. Which weather systems are projected to cause future changes in mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 simulations?[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2016-01-01,121(18)