DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024251
论文题名: ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound
作者: Smets P.S.M. ; Assink J.D. ; Le Pichon A. ; Evers L.G.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2016
卷: 121, 期: 9 起始页码: 4637
结束页码: 4650
语种: 英语
英文关键词: forecast evaluation
; infrasound
; middle atmosphere
; SSW
英文摘要: Accurate prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events is important for the performance of numerical weather prediction due to significant stratosphere-Troposphere coupling. In this study, for the first time middle atmospheric numerical weather forecasts are evaluated using infrasound. A year of near-continuous infrasound from the volcano Mount Tolbachik (Kamchatka, Russian Federation) is compared with simulations using high-resolution deterministic forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For the entire time span the nowcast generally performs best, indicated by a higher continuity of the predicted wavefront characteristics with a minimal back azimuth difference. Best performance for all forecasts is obtained in summer. The difference between the infrasound observations and the predictions based on the forecasts is significantly larger during the 2013 SSW period for all forecasts. Simulations show that the SSW onset is better captured by the 10 day forecast while the recovery is better captured by the nowcast. © 2016. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62883
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: RandD Department of Seismology and Acoustics, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Department of Geoscience and Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands; CEA, DAM, DIF, Arpajon, France
Recommended Citation:
Smets P.S.M.,Assink J.D.,Le Pichon A.,et al. ECMWF SSW forecast evaluation using infrasound[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2016-01-01,121(9)